In the last general elections, there were three parliamentary seats in Sabah that had less than 10% margin of majority that is, Kota Belud(BN), Sandakan (BN) and Kota Kinabalu (PKR). In the case of Kota Kinabalu, the support for the Opposition was overwhelming if it had not been a three-cornered fight which split the opposition’s votes. As far as parliamentary seats are concerned, the support for the BN is more clear-cut.
However, the support for the state seats are much more controversial with exceedingly more multi-party contestations with at least four seats which could have been won by the opposition if the votes had not been split.
Talks about SAPP defecting and Anwar making pronouncements the recent events in last few days would lead to a domino effect, need a closer examination. The critical question is; what will it take for the domino effect to take place?
There are three criteria that must evolve beforehand. Two of which is micro to Sabah local politics and one national in its context.
First, UMNO Sabah holds 13 parliamentary seats and this is overwhelmingly over-weighted compared to the other component parties of 2-3 seats. People also tend to think that there a very few Muslims in Sabah when in fact they make up 42.8% of the population of Sabah. The rest being mainly, Christians. The truth of the matter is that it still takes a strong Sabah-born Muslim leader in the Opposition in order to effect a real defection from BN. Yong Teck Lee may be Sabahan but he is not a Muslim. Anwar Ibrahim may be a Muslim but he is not a Sabahan. Right now, there is no such a person in the Opposition.
Second, there must be a clear split within UMNO Sabah (which is the second largest UMNO state after Johor) so much so a faction would join Anwar out of disgruntlement. Otherwise, why would any of the leaders risk opposing the Federal government for a ‘promise’ of a better life in Sabah politics? While it is said that there are two (2) factions within UMNO Sabah, namely Musa Aman and Shafie Apdal - neither side would want to split from UMNO until the UMNO’s presidency becomes more definite. (This is because Musa Aman is said to be aligned to Badawi and if a new UMNO leader does come along, the new PM may not necessarily retain Musa Aman as the CM). In any case, the UMNO supreme leadership issue is not likely to be resolved anytime soon.
Third, the stack of cards cannot happen unless there is a single party that would also play along. MCA holds the next largest bloc of 15 MPs. Yong Teck Lee barely persuades his fellow Sabah parties to abandon the coalition, let alone handle parties such as MCA or MIC. MCA has already pledged its support for BN. And this is true because MCA also sees this as its only chance to regain the Gerakan-vacated seats particularly, in Penang.
One might even consider also, at the back of our minds, the reactions to the above by PAS which is the real kingmaker in the current political scenario. What they may or may not do also has a bearing on who is to be in power.
The next question is what the BN can do to prevent the three events to take place?
a) The UMNO internal crisis must be resolved and there is a clear paramount UMNO leader.
b) The UMNO-BN leader must have the fervor as well as the capability to take the party as well as the BN to the next level of reforms. UMNO must not think that it only needs to reform at the top level but relook at some of the issues that brought the Alliance into power in the first place. Some of the critical issues would be; the reexamination of the social contract and the idea of ‘Ketuanan Melayu’ in the context of 21st century Malaysia. The position and role of Islam in the public space. The fact that the BN rural based grassroots structure is no longer able to serve to urban ideals of the younger generation.
c) The spirit and approach of the new-BN is not one that is determined by the dominant party but by consensus of all its members.
d) The Opposition must be to respect the democratic process. While they garnered 5 states, they had not won at the Federal level. If Malaysia is genuine about forming a two-party system it must be based on ideologies and approaches, and not one that is based on horse trading.
e) On the matter of Sabah, it is not true that the people of Sabah want autonomy. Nor do they necessarily support the Opposition. Like other urban Malaysians, they do not see any other alternative to the old, inept BN. Corruption and abuse of power is rife. Sabahans want to see definite action oriented plans to resolve a very difficult matter of illegal presence, rural development, support for the poor and equitable political treatment. The illegal issue is a 30-plus year issue and no one expects the government to solve the problem by August as proposed by Yong Teck Lee. Sabahans just do not want to see the Federal government turning a blind eye to the matter.
- By Fui K. Soong -